Business Forecasting

The goal of studying this subject is to enable students to master basic concepts and categories in the field of business forecasting, i.e. to study the effects of internal and external factors that affect the future operations of the company, with the use of different instruments and methods of forecasting. Business forecasting involve risk analysis and probability of projected events. The goal of the subject is that students master the basic quantitative and qualitative methods of business forecasting.

After passing the exam, students will be able to explain the business forecasts and what is their significance for the achieved business result of the company. They will master the basic principles of the process of business forecasting, theoretically and practically. After completing the course they will be able to apply quantitative and qualitative methods of business forecasting and determine the likelihood of achieving the projected business scenarios (pessimistic, most likely, optimistic scenario).

Concept and basic principles of business forecasting; Development of theoretical thinking about business forecasts; Typology of business forecasting; Level of complexity of the process of business forecasting; Process of business forecasting; Time horizon of business forecasting; Quantitative and qualitative methods of business forecasting; Models of business forecasting; Analysis of risks and uncertainties of the business forecasting; Identification and estimation of error prediction; Analysis of additional value of business forecasting; Alternative approaches to the problems of business forecasting.

Lectures, exercises and case studies: business forecasting - foreign experiences for domestic practice.

Colloquium I (0-20 points); Colloquium II (0-20 points); Final exam (0-50 points); Attendance (2point); Class activities (seminar papers, discussions, case studies) (0-8 points)

Vukmirović, N. (2012). Entrepreneurship in economic theory and practice. Banja Luka: Faculty of Economics, University of Banja Luka; Armstrong, S. J. (2001). Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners. New York, USA: Kluwer Academic Publishers; Carnot, N.; Koen, V.; Tissot, B. (2005). Economic Forecasting. Palgrave MacMillan: Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG 21 6XS and 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N. Y. 10010, USA.