On the occasion of World No Tobacco Day, the forum "Public Health or Industry Interests?" was held in Sarajevo on June 2 in the ASA institute. The event was organized by the PROI Association in cooperation with the Faculty of Economics of the University of Banja Luka. The forum brought together representatives from government institutions, the healthcare sector, international organizations, academia, and civil society.
Our faculty was represented at the forum by Prof. Dragan Gligorić, PhD, the project coordinator, and researcher Nikola Vidović. They presented the results of a study conducted as part of the international scientific research project "Economic Research in Support of Tobacco Tax Reform in Bosnia and Herzegovina," which is led by Johns Hopkins University and funded by Bloomberg Philanthropies.
Namely, Bosnia and Herzegovina continues to have one of the highest smoking rates in Europe. Our research, which we conducted with the support of the World Bank in BiH, shows that smoking prevalence has risen from 41.1% in 2019 to nearly 43% in 2025. [...] Our simulations show that increasing the minimum excise duty by 1 BAM (KM) annually would lead to a revenue growth from excise duties of approximately 12% to 17% per year, despite the decline in cigarette consumption. At the same time, smoking prevalence would decrease by about 3.5 percentage points as early as next year, thousands of premature smoking-related deaths would be prevented, and more than three thousand young people would be deterred from starting to smoke. For this reason, we believe that Bosnia and Herzegovina needs to establish a policy of regular excise duty increases on tobacco products, whereby the minimum growth of excise duties should be at least equal to the sum of the inflation rate and real income growth."
On the other hand, Bosnia and Herzegovina has achieved significant progress in combating illicit tobacco trade. The share of smokers purchasing illicit manufactured cigarettes decreased from 18.1% in 2019 to around 7.3% in 2025, while the overall illicit market currently accounts for less than 8.5% of total tobacco product consumption. These results indicate that there is room to strengthen excise policy while continuing measures aimed at combating illicit trade and tax evasion.
The forum resulted in clear conclusions regarding the need to urgently improve tobacco control policies in BiH, strengthen fiscal measures, and prioritize public health over commercial interests.
Gallery
